Well, back to the drawing board. Just under 5000 hands and I'm right back where I started. I wonder if any of it has to do with playing on the weekend. I don't think my play adjusted all that much, but it appears that no matter how much betting i do on the turn, people are calling with almost no odds and making their hands.
One thing I did notice, is that I'm finding it difficult to fold two pair on draw heavy boards. I is teh suck.
Is there anybody out there that can help me analyze my hand database?
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2 comments:
first off 13.5BB/100 is probably just running a little hot and may not be sustainable even at the micros until you get some more experience. This is especially true if those are the bb numbers traditionally used by pokertracker which are worth 2x the big blind of the game you are playing.
So expecting to run and play that well for ever (even at microstakes) is probably unlikely. Even though the players are lol awful at the micro stakes, the rake is a much bigger factor and if you find yourself beatin the game by that much for 25-30k hands you should probably move up and take some shots at the next level up.
Second, 5000 hands is a ridiculously small sample, and random variance alone can totally skew results in that small of a sample. By 25k hands or so you should start to get a better feel for your actually winrate, but it won't be until +50k hands that your WR will start to normalize. Sometimes really extreme variance (good or bad) may keep your winrate from normalizing after even 100k hands.
So at this point I wouldn't be worried so much about results. I would be focusing on decision making in each hand, on each street. Join 2p2 and post hands in the forums and get feedback, and use Pokerstove to do equity analysis against perceived ranges of villains in the hand. Then think through any decisions you made in big hands and decide if you made the best move, or if taking an alternate line might have yielded more profit or saved some money.
gl at the tables
Thanks Jim2k.
Your comment was just what I was looking for. I figured the sample size was off the charts small, and that I need to log more hands. After getting past the 5k mark, I'm yayz, down 1.5 buyins. I'm getting ready for variance!
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